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Economic analysis

The European Commission conducts economic analyses on various aspects of EU trade policy in order to assess the impact of trade on the EU and global economy.

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Economic analysisPolicy analysisTrade policy

Economic analysis

Economic analysis is undertaken by the Chief Economist team in DG Trade, and independent consultants with funding from the Commission. This analysis feeds into a better formulation of trade policy.


The evolution of the world economy and its impacts on the EU.

Publication DateTitleDocuments
May 2020The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on global and EU trade
April 2020The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on global and EU trade
December 2016Navigating non-tariff measures: Insights from a business survey in the European Union
April 2016The expansion of the Information Technology Agreement: An economic assessment

Bilateral and regional

Publication DateTitleDocuments

July 2023

The economic impact of the EU–Chile modernisation agreement
March 2021Overview of EU-Canada trade performance under CETA
February 2019The economic impact of the EU-Vietnam free trade agreement
June 2018The economic impact of the EU-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA)
February 2017The economic impact of the EU-East African Community Economic Partnership Agreement
September 2016Assessing the economic impact of the trade agreement between the European Union and Ecuador
June 2016The economic impact of the SADC EPA Group-EU Economic Partnership Agreement
March 2016The economic impact of the West Africa-EU Economic Partnership Agreement
April 2015SMEs and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership

Chief Economist - Notes

Publication DateTitleDocuments
September 2023Evaluating trade policy: the practice of the European Commission 
September 2023Global trade fragmentation: an EU perspective
July 2023Origin(al) rules and the use of trade preferences - The case of EU trade with Canada
July 2023 Developing countries' integration into the world economy
March 2023CETA: Evolution of key economic indicators 
August 2022 (2)The economic impact of sanctions and Russian countermeasures following the Russian invasion of Ukraine until the 5th EU sanctions package
August 2022 (1)Structured literature review and modelling suggestions on the impact of trade and trade policy on the environment and the climate
June 2022Time to preference: Early preference uptake under CETA and the EU-Korea FTA
May 2022Gender patterns of EU exports: jobs and wage differentials 
November 2021More important than ever: employment content of extra-EU exports
September 2021The impact of Covid-19 on exports-related jobs
June 2020Trade policy reflections beyond the Covid-19 outbreak
May 2020The role of SMEs in extra-EU exports: Key performance indicators
September 2019Female participation in EU exporting activities: Jobs and wages
July 2019Reflections on the economic modelling of free trade agreements
May 2019Trade for you too: Why is trade more important than you think?
November 2018How important are EU exports for jobs in the EU?
September 2018Government procurement: Data, trends and protectionist tendencies
June 2018EU exports, preferences utilisation and duty savings by Member State, sector and partner country
February 2018Consumer benefits from EU trade liberalisation: How much did we save since the Uruguay Round?
July 2017Liberalising global trade in Mode 5 services: How much is it worth?
June 2017Are EU exports gender-blind? Some key features of women participation in exporting activities in the EU
May 2017Trade and labour adjustment in Europe: What role for the European Globalisation Adjustment Fund?
March 2017Can we put a price on extending the scope of the GPA? First quantitative assessment
November 2016Trade in services by GATS modes of supply: Statistical concepts and first EU estimates
September 2016Trade effects of the EU-Korea free trade agreement: A comparative analysis of expected and observed outcomes
February 2016EU exports to the world: Overview of effects on employment and income
December 2015The economic impact of the Russian import ban: A CGE analysis
July 2015The EU-Korea free trade agreement: Anticipation, trade policy uncertainty and impact
April 2015International Procurement: From scant facts to hard data
November 2014Towards 'Trade Policy Analysis 2.0'

Modes of Supply

A joint DG TRADE-WTO project launched by the DG TRADE's Chief Economist Unit produced a global services trade dataset by all four Modes of Supply: fundamental elements of the GATS legal architecture.

Building on DG TRADE's earlier work with Eurostat and the Joint Research Centre, the dataset provides services exports and imports of 200 economies and 13 sectors by modes of supply from 2005 to 2017.

The raw data is available on the WTO website

Latest news

  • News article

No early termination of EU steel safeguard, review concludes

Today, the Commission published an implementing regulation maintaining the EU steel safeguard measure until its expiry on 30 June 2024. All tariff-rate quotas (TRQs) of the steel safeguard will continue to be increased (liberalised) by 4% as of 1 July 2023.

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