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Economic analysis

The European Commission conducts economic analyses on various aspects of EU trade policy in order to assess the impact of trade on the EU and global economy.

Trade topics
  • Economic analysis
  • Policy analysis
  • Trade policy

Economic analysis

Economic analysis is undertaken by the Chief Economist team in DG Trade, and independent consultants with funding from the Commission. This analysis feeds into a better formulation of trade policy.


The evolution of the world economy and its impacts on the EU.

Publication Date Title Documents
May 2020 The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on global and EU trade
April 2020 The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on global and EU trade
December 2016 Navigating non-tariff measures: Insights from a business survey in the European Union
April 2016 The expansion of the Information Technology Agreement: An economic assessment

Bilateral and regional

Publication Date Title Documents

July 2023

The economic impact of the EU–Chile modernisation agreement
March 2021 Overview of EU-Canada trade performance under CETA
February 2019 The economic impact of the EU-Vietnam free trade agreement
June 2018 The economic impact of the EU-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA)
February 2017 The economic impact of the EU-East African Community Economic Partnership Agreement
September 2016 Assessing the economic impact of the trade agreement between the European Union and Ecuador
June 2016 The economic impact of the SADC EPA Group-EU Economic Partnership Agreement
March 2016 The economic impact of the West Africa-EU Economic Partnership Agreement
April 2015 SMEs and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership

Chief Economist - Notes

Publication Date Title Documents
October 2023 Developing country resilience over past crises
September 2023 Evaluating trade policy: the practice of the European Commission 
September 2023 Global trade fragmentation: an EU perspective
July 2023 Origin(al) rules and the use of trade preferences - The case of EU trade with Canada
July 2023  Developing countries' integration into the world economy
March 2023 CETA: Evolution of key economic indicators 
August 2022 (2) The economic impact of sanctions and Russian countermeasures following the Russian invasion of Ukraine until the 5th EU sanctions package
August 2022 (1) Structured literature review and modelling suggestions on the impact of trade and trade policy on the environment and the climate
June 2022 Time to preference: Early preference uptake under CETA and the EU-Korea FTA
May 2022 Gender patterns of EU exports: jobs and wage differentials 
November 2021 More important than ever: employment content of extra-EU exports
September 2021 The impact of Covid-19 on exports-related jobs
June 2020 Trade policy reflections beyond the Covid-19 outbreak
May 2020 The role of SMEs in extra-EU exports: Key performance indicators
September 2019 Female participation in EU exporting activities: Jobs and wages
July 2019 Reflections on the economic modelling of free trade agreements
May 2019 Trade for you too: Why is trade more important than you think?
November 2018 How important are EU exports for jobs in the EU?
September 2018 Government procurement: Data, trends and protectionist tendencies
June 2018 EU exports, preferences utilisation and duty savings by Member State, sector and partner country
February 2018 Consumer benefits from EU trade liberalisation: How much did we save since the Uruguay Round?
July 2017 Liberalising global trade in Mode 5 services: How much is it worth?
June 2017 Are EU exports gender-blind? Some key features of women participation in exporting activities in the EU
May 2017 Trade and labour adjustment in Europe: What role for the European Globalisation Adjustment Fund?
March 2017 Can we put a price on extending the scope of the GPA? First quantitative assessment
November 2016 Trade in services by GATS modes of supply: Statistical concepts and first EU estimates
September 2016 Trade effects of the EU-Korea free trade agreement: A comparative analysis of expected and observed outcomes
February 2016 EU exports to the world: Overview of effects on employment and income
December 2015 The economic impact of the Russian import ban: A CGE analysis
July 2015 The EU-Korea free trade agreement: Anticipation, trade policy uncertainty and impact
April 2015 International Procurement: From scant facts to hard data
November 2014 Towards 'Trade Policy Analysis 2.0'

Modes of Supply

A joint DG TRADE-WTO project launched by the DG TRADE's Chief Economist Unit produced a global services trade dataset by all four Modes of Supply: fundamental elements of the GATS legal architecture.

Building on DG TRADE's earlier work with Eurostat and the Joint Research Centre, the dataset provides services exports and imports of 200 economies and 13 sectors by modes of supply from 2005 to 2017.

The raw data is available on the WTO website

Tune in to trade policy insights

Picture of Valdis Dombrovskis

What does it take to steer EU trade policy through the challenges of our times?

Executive Vice-President Valdis Dombrovskis shares his insights into the inner workings of EU trade policy.

19/10/2023 | Episode 1 | 31 minutes

Picture of Denis Redonnet, Martin Lukas and Carolina Cumbo Nacheli

What does it take to defend open trade and help European companies compete fairly on the global market?

Tom Moylan meets the European Commission’s Chief Trade Enforcement Officer Denis Redonnet and two seasoned trade defence experts.

28/11/2023 | Episode 2 | 34 minutes

Latest news

  • Press release

The suspension of import duties and quotas on Ukrainian exports to the European Union will be extended for another year, following today's adoption by the Council and April 23 vote in the European Parliament.

  • 1 min read

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