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Trade and Economic Security

Monitoring trade diversion – Frequently asked questions

The European Commission has set up an import surveillance task force to monitor import trends. 

Trade topics
  • Importing into the EU
  • Trade defence

How will the task force monitor these imports?

The task force set up within the Commission has developed an automated dashboard based on the customs surveillance system that allows close monitoring over time of import trends thanks to customs data, so that any surge can be identified quickly and compared with complementary data (provided by the relevant industry).

The objective of the dashboard is to identify product codes (by 8-digit combined nomenclature codes, or CN codes) where a potentially harmful increase of imports can be observed since 1 January 2025. The results will be published regularly online.

What is the source of the data? Does the dashboard show results in real time? What are the conditions a product code needs to meet to appear in the report? 

The tool monitors imports from all origins outside the EU, based on the customs surveillance system. The results include import data up to one month before their publication. The results are updated and published once a month. 

The results list presents customs codes (combined nomenclature), their description, a percentage increase in import volume, and a percentage decrease in price. A product code is considered a ‘hit’ and appears in the results list if, compared to the same period of the previous year, imports under the code from all origins into the EU:

  • show an increase in quantity;
  • a decrease in the average import price over the same period, and;
  • the product is also produced in the EU. 

The heat map flags increases in quantity of imports with decreases in the average import price over the same period, drawing attention to the industry sectors and (groups of) origins where potentially harmful increases of imports are most frequent. It presents the frequency of ‘hits’ aggregated by industry sector (as defined under the NACE categorisation) and by (groups of) origins. For technical reasons, the Commission had to limit the number of countries/regions displayed by default, and as a result, has chosen to cover the EU's main trading partners and some country groups. The (groups of) origins included are ASEAN, Canada, China, EFTA, India, Japan, Mercosur, Mexico, Russia, South Korea, Türkiye, Taiwan, the United Kingdom, and the United States. 

To provide a full picture, imports from the rest of the world are grouped under the designation 'RoW'. Imports from the whole world, for which detailed data are presented in the results list, are grouped under the designation 'WW'. 

‘Frequency’ means how often hits are detected within a given industry sector. The higher the share of hits within the sector, the higher the frequency.  

Results are grouped in four categories of increasing prevalence of hits. The darkest category is that of the combinations of sector and origin that score the highest frequencies of hits, followed by those that have above-average frequency and those that have below-average frequency. Finally, combinations with no hits are left white. 

The results of the dashboard are only the starting point. It is not possible to determine through the dashboard what might have caused a shift in import patterns. 

With the help of the EU industry concerned (via input collected through questionnaires sent to TRADE-IMPORT-MONITORINGatec [dot] europa [dot] eu (TRADE-IMPORT-MONITORING[at]ec[dot]europa[dot]eu)), the Commission will further refine its analysis for the product codes that appear to be most diverted. 

Note that over time the results of the dashboard may change as a result of the dynamic nature of the analysis and because customs authorities may need to make corrections to the originally encoded customs data. 

What methodology is used to create the list of hits and the heat map?

The automated dashboard analyses historical customs import data per CN code starting in 2023 and leading up to a month before the publication of the list. This methodology [1] allows the detection of changes in smaller trade flows which might have been overshadowed by more high-level analysis. Even increases in imports in codes of small values or quantity might still be potentially harmful to the respective industry sector. 

A product code is considered a ‘hit' and appears in the result list when imports into the EU from all origins meet all the following criteria (cumulatively): 

  1. A change in 2025 import patterns regarding quantity compared to the patterns established using data since 2023, and;
    1. an increase of at least 5% in import volumes, and;
    2. a decrease of at least 5% in import prices, and;
    3. an average weekly import value of at least 120,000 euros, and;
    4. existence of production in the EU at a sectoral level. 

Increases in volume and decreases in value are calculated by comparing imports in 2025 with imports over the same period in 2024.

These criteria were set to find a good balance between ‘catching’ potentially relevant results while trying to avoid being flooded with results that may not be meaningful. Depending on the industry’s feedback, the methodology may be revised over time.

The heat map summarises the information in the list, drawing attention to the industry sectors and (groups of) origins where potentially harmful increases of imports are most frequent. It presents the frequency of ‘hits’ aggregated by industry sector (as defined under the NACE categorisation) and by (groups of) origins. The graph does not visualise the ‘magnitude’ of the ‘hits’ as it is only based on number of codes that meet the criteria used for the analysis; the total value or volume is not considered.  

For technical reasons the Commission had to limit the number of countries/regions displayed by default, and as a result, has chosen to cover the EU’s main trading partners and some country groups. The (groups of) origins included are ASEAN, Canada, China, EFTA, India, Japan, MERCOSUR, Mexico, Russia, South Korea, Türkiye, Taiwan, the United Kingdom, and the United States. 

To provide a full picture, imports from the rest of the world are grouped under designation ‘RoW’. Imports from the whole world, for which detailed data are presented in the results list, are grouped under designation ‘WW’. 

‘Frequency’ refers to how often hits are detected within a given industry sector. The higher the share of codes identified as ‘hits’ in the total number of codes included in a specific sector, the higher the frequency.   

Results are grouped in four categories of increasing prevalence of hits. The darkest category is that of the combinations of sector and origin that score the highest frequencies of hits, followed by those that have above-average frequency and those that have below-average frequency. Finally, combinations with no hits are left white.

[1] Based on the methodology cited here: Robust Monitoring of Time Series with Application to Fraud Detection - ScienceDirect 

Why was the threshold for average weekly imports changed from €100,000 to €200,000?

The Commission’s analysis showed that codes with an average weekly value below €200,000 exhibited significant volatility — appearing in one iteration and vanishing in the next — often due to a single import transaction pushing them above the threshold. For certain products, seasonal import patterns amplify the fluctuations. To provide more stable and reliable signals and enable industry stakeholders to focus on consistent, meaningful trends, the threshold has been increased to €200,000 - starting from the fifth edition.

How can industry reach out to the Commission to provide input?

Engagement and cooperation with EU industry will be crucial to complement the import monitoring put in place by the task force.

Combining the efforts of the task force on import surveillance with industry’s market intelligence and data on the industry’s economic situation will allow the Commission to:

  • effectively detect the products where trade diversion may be taking place;
  • enhance the ability of the Commission to take targeted, proportionate and timely action, and;
  • ensure the effectiveness of potential protective measures on a given product, to prevent any unintended effects on other (downstream) products.

To ensure the appropriate information reaches the Commission, EU industry is invited to use the dedicated questionnaire and send input to TRADE-IMPORT-MONITORINGatec [dot] europa [dot] eu (TRADE-IMPORT-MONITORING[at]ec[dot]europa[dot]eu).

What guarantees does the Commission provide regarding the confidentiality of the information communicated by the companies?

Information that is provided and marked as confidential will be treated as such in accordance with Article 8 of Regulation (EU) No 2015/ 478 on common rules for imports and Article 5 of Regulation (EU) No 2015/755 on common rules for imports from certain third countries.

How will the Commission engage with third countries on the issue of trade diversion caused by tariffs?

Where appropriate, the Commission will engage in discussions with trading partners on this issue.

Will every industry sector be protected from trade diversion? How quickly will they receive protection? 

While the Commission is on high alert regarding risks of trade diversion and the potential damaging effect on the EU economy, blanket sector-wide protection will not be feasible. 

On the one hand, because the Commission has to verify any assumptions with facts (i.e. has there been a surge of harmful imports for a given product, based on statistical evidence?).

On the other hand, protective measures can be imposed with regard to (a) specific product(s), not regarding an entire sector. They can only cover products that are also produced in the EU. 

This is why any action will need to be targeted, proportionate and timely. 

What are the conditions that need to be met for a protective measure? How soon can they be implemented? How long can they be in place?

A safeguard measure can be taken where there is evidence of (1) an increase in imports which (2) causes (or threatens to cause) serious injury to EU producers of products directly competing with the imports. Both the increase in imports and the (threat of) serious injury must be substantiated by evidence, including reliable statistical data. It is important to note that 'EU producers' refers to Union producers representing a major proportion of total EU production of a given product. 

Once the necessary evidence is available, an investigation can be initiated within a month – at the request of one or more Member States. 

Provisional measures may be imposed while the investigation is still ongoing, for a maximum of 200 days. Definitive measures would normally be imposed within nine months after initiation (can be extended to 11 months). 

Safeguard measures apply in principle to imports from all origins. They can take various forms, e.g. an additional duty that takes effect beyond a certain volume of imports. They must be supported by a qualified majority of Member States. 

Their duration under EU and WTO law is limited to a maximum of eight years. 

Anti-dumping or anti-subsidy measures are an option where EU producers have evidence that a product is being imported into the EU in increased quantities, and sold at dumped prices (below the price on the domestic market of the exporting country or below the cost of production), or benefits from unfair subsidies.

While anti-dumping and anti-subsidy measures cannot be imposed as quickly as a safeguard, they can offer protection beyond the eight-year limit of a safeguard measure and can be imposed unless a qualified majority of Member States opposes them. 

Anti-dumping and anti-subsidy measures targeted at one or several specific countr(y/ies) as opposed to imports from all origins in the case of a safeguard.

Protective measures may help one part of the economy but will be detrimental to others. How will the Commission handle this?

For any trade defence measure, the Commission is required to carry out a so-called Union interest test to ensure that the proposed measure would not be unduly detrimental to other segments of the EU economy.

In the event of a safeguard, the Union interest concerns can also be addressed in the design of the measure (e.g. by establishing a tariff rate quota based on historic levels of trade above which an additional duty takes effect, possibly taking into account historic shares of imports from specific trading partners).

Is it possible to get the underlying data for the published monitoring results?

The data underlying the monitoring results is derived from the confidential import surveillance database. Article 55(3) of Regulation (EU)2015/2447 only allows the Commission to disclose data from any import surveillance in aggregated form: in this case, the regularly updated results list and heat map. 

For this exercise, the Commission is monitoring imports only at EU level, because theEU is a single market and injury is determined at EU level. 

The latest published results list more product codes than the previous edition(s). Does this imply that a possible harmful surge of imports in these codes occurred during the latest month reported?

The fact that additional codes appear in a new results list does not necessarily equal to a surge of imports in the last month. While it may be the case for some codes, in most instances it is essentially an expected development: with each new publication more recent data allows the system to detect deviations from the expected pattern, mostly in earlier months. Therefore, more products will meet the cumulative criteria of the dashboard.

It can also happen that codes disappear from one month to the next. This happens when the automated system either concluded on the basis of the new data that the trade flow did not deviate from past patterns or calculated that these codes did not fulfil the analysis criteria.

EU Industry has indications that there has been a surge in the imports of a product or a group of products. Can the Commission add it/them to the codes that are being monitored?

The Commission’s automated dashboard analyses all CN codes simultaneously using the most up to date data available in the Surveillance database. Codes that cumulatively meet the five criteria listed in the methodology above are reported in the list of hits. The fact that the product in question does not appear in the list means that the trade flow did not fulfil one or more of these criteria. EU industry can share with the relevant information through the functional mailbox, so that the Commission can evaluate the situation and also assess the possibility of improving the methodology for the detection of surges.

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