Import barometer – Frequently asked questions

The reconfigured import barometer aims to enhance understanding of the scale and nature of sustained import increases that are impacting EU industry and the EU internal market.

Below you will find a list of frequently asked questions regarding the methodology used (data, criteria, outcomes), and potential follow-up in terms of stakeholders, Member States and the Commission.

• Why did the Commission change its approach from monitoring trade diversion? What is the difference?
• How will the barometer monitor sustained import increases?
• What is the source of the data? Does the monitoring tool show results in real time?
• What methodology is used to create the list of results? What are the conditions a product code needs to meet to appear in the report?
• What does the list of results show?
• What do the tables on the import monitoring page show?
• The results will be published on a quarterly basis only. Why not monthly?
• The basis of the data is Eurostat and not Surveillance. Why the change?
• Is the list of results a definitive list of codes that the Commission has chosen to monitor? EU industry has indicated that imports of a product not included in the list are causing injury. Can the Commission add this code to the list of codes that are being monitored?
• Is it possible to get the underlying data for the published monitoring results?
• Is the Commission also assessing import trends at Member State level?
• How can industry reach out to the Commission to provide input?
• What guarantees does the Commission provide regarding the confidentiality of the information communicated by companies?
• Will every industry sector be protected from sustained import increases? How quickly will they receive protection? How long can measures stay in place? 
• Protective measures may help one part of the economy but be detrimental to others. How will the Commission handle this?
• How will the Commission engage with third countries on the issue of import pressure caused by tariffs?

Why did the Commission change its approach from monitoring trade diversion? What is the difference?

On 7 April 2025, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen set up an import surveillance task force focused on import surges caused by trade diversion in the wake of significantly increased tariff levels in certain major global markets. The task force’s evidence-based approach provided valuable insight into trade flows and strengthened the EU’s ability to protect its open market from unfair import competition. It also served as an important basis for engagement with EU industry and an improved understanding of market dynamics. 

Since spring 2025, the trade landscape has changed as tariffs have de-escalated, reducing the incentive to divert trade. At the same time, the main concern expressed by EU industry shifted from the effects of trade diversion to the rise of imports driven by industrial overcapacities, often fuelled by state-led policies and support measures, and their impact on EU industrial production.

To address these concerns, the Commission is revising the methodology previously used, and establishing an import barometer to focus on longer-term, sustained increases in imports at decreasing prices that reflect the systemic nature of the challenges they pose. 

The import barometer aims to improve collective understanding among EU stakeholders of the scale and nature of the increasing pressure exerted by imports, and to inform decisions and actions to protect the EU internal market, the European industrial base and, ultimately, the EU’s economic security and prosperity.

How will the barometer monitor sustained import increases?

The Commission has developed an automated dashboard, based on Eurostat import data, to monitor import trends over time. This helps the Commission identify the codes and sectors acing sustained import increases at decreasing prices¹ and provides a basis for adding complementary data from the relevant industry to obtain a complete picture.

The purpose of the import monitoring tool is to identify products (by 8-digit combined nomenclature (CN8) codes) for which a consistent, potentially harmful increase of imports can be observed. The results will be published online on a quarterly basis.

¹ Prices in this context are the unit values calculated by dividing the import value by the import net mass.

What is the source of the data? Does the monitoring tool show results in real time?

The barometer monitors imports from all origins outside the EU, based on Eurostat data. The results include import data up to and including the last full quarter of data available by Eurostat at the time of each report’s publication. The results are updated and published quarterly. 

Note that over time the results of the dashboard may change as a result of the dynamic nature of the analysis and because customs authorities may need to make corrections to the originally encoded customs data.

What methodology is used to create the list of results? What are the conditions a product code needs to meet to appear in the report?  

The barometer analyses historical customs import data per CN8 (8-digit combined nomenclature) code, starting in 2023 and covering all data up to and including the most recent full quarter available in Eurostat at the time of the publication of the list. Analysing imports at CN8 level allows the detection of changes that might be hidden in more aggregated analyses. 

A product code is included in the results list if imports under this code into the EU from all origins meet all of the following criteria:

1. the existence of production in the EU at a sectoral level;
2. an annual import value of at least 50 million euro;
3. a year-on-year increase in import volumes of at least 5.2% between the current yearly period and the previous yearly period;
4. an increase in import volumes of at least 5.2% between the current yearly period and the same period two years earlier, and;
5. a year-on-year decrease in import prices.  

These criteria were set to strike a balance between identifying relevant results while avoiding being flooded with results that may not be meaningful. The 5.2% threshold for import volume growth was chosen to reflect the median annual increase in import volumes over the period 2023-2025, so that codes growing faster than the average are captured. Since prices tend to grow with inflation, a decrease in import prices may indicate undercutting. The minimum annual import threshold value focuses the analysis on meaningful import flows that are less likely to reflect short-term fluctuations. 

With the help of the EU industry concerned (via input collected through questionnaires sent to TRADE-IMPORT-MONITORINGec [dot] europa [dot] eu (TRADE-IMPORT-MONITORING[at]ec[dot]europa[dot]eu)), the Commission will further refine its analysis for the product codes that appear to be most diverted. 

What does the list of results show?

For each product that meets the selection criteria, the results present the product’s customs code (combined nomenclature), product description, and NACE division. Furthermore, they report the percentage increase in imports and the percentage decrease in price year-on-year, the value and volume in kg for the current yearly period, for the previous yearly period, and for the yearly period before the previous yearly period. 

It should be noted that the reported percentage increases in volumes appear in some cases very high. This is often generated by a ‘baseline effect’, i.e. an extremely low level of imports in the previous yearly period. For example, in the first edition the code 87071010 'Bodies for the industrial assembly of motor cars and other motor vehicles principally designed for the transport of persons' exhibited an increase of 12,540% due to the increase of quantity to 27,746,132 kg from 219,503 kg in the previous yearly period.

What do the tables on the import monitoring page show?

The two tables are based on the dashboard and provide an overview of its results. 

The first table is a simple summary of the latest list of results showing how many codes in each NACE division meet the 'import barometer' criteria for total imports. The highlighted rows show the four NACE divisions with the highest number of flagged codes. 

The second table provides an indication of which (groups of) origins contribute most to sustained import increases within each NACE division. The dashboard applies the barometer’s criteria for imports from each origin separately and identifies codes that meet them. The table summarises this information by highlighting the three origins or origin groups with the biggest number of codes meeting these criteria. 

The results will be published on a quarterly basis only. Why not monthly?

The import monitoring tool is designed to capture longer term trends rather than short term surges. The analysis compares yearly data, so adding one extra month is very unlikely to change the results and therefore would add little value. Furthermore, analysing data on a quarterly basis follows the Commission’s usual practice for examining import and injury data in trade defence investigations. 

The basis of the data is Eurostat and not Surveillance. Why the change?

While Surveillance data is available for more recent dates than Eurostat data, it is preliminary and may contain errors. Eurostat data has been cleaned and harmonised, providing more consistent results for the barometer. Additionally, using Eurostat data is the Commission’s preferred practice for examining import and injury data in trade defence investigations.

Is the list of results a definitive list of codes that the Commission has chosen to monitor? EU industry has indicated that imports of a product not included in the list are causing injury. Can the Commission add this code to the list of codes that are being monitored?

The list of results is a product of an automated dashboard, which analyses the trade flows of all CN codes simultaneously, using the most up-to-date data available in Eurostat. Only those codes that cumulatively meet all the criteria listed in the methodology above at the time of analysis appear in the list. This means that the analysis is dynamic in nature and results may change as a different period is considered and trade flows evolve.

However, even if a code does not appear in the list, the Union industry might still be facing injury. The Commission therefore strongly encourages industry to share relevant information through the functional mailbox: TRADE-IMPORT-MONITORINGec [dot] europa [dot] eu (TRADE-IMPORT-MONITORING[at]ec[dot]europa[dot]eu), so that the Commission can assess the situation and also consider how to improve its methodology.

Is it possible to get the underlying data for the published monitoring results?

The data underlying the monitoring results are public data and can be accessed via ESTAT’s webpage.

Is the Commission also assessing import trends at Member State level?

For this exercise, the Commission is monitoring imports only at EU level, because the EU is a single market and injury is determined at EU level.

How can industry reach out to the Commission to provide input?

Engagement and cooperation with EU industry will be crucial to complement the results of the import barometer put in place by the Commission.

Combining the data analysis of the barometer with industry’s market intelligence and data on the industry’s economic situation will allow the Commission to:

• effectively assess whether and which products are facing injury due to sustained import increases;
• enhance its ability to evaluate which products and industries are suffering injury and thus may require protection, and take targeted, proportionate and timely action, and;
• ensure the effectiveness of potential protective measures on a given product, to prevent any unintended effects on other (downstream) products.

To ensure the appropriate information reaches the Commission, EU industry is invited to use this questionnaire and send input to TRADE-IMPORT-MONITORINGec [dot] europa [dot] eu (TRADE-IMPORT-MONITORING[at]ec[dot]europa[dot]eu).

What guarantees does the Commission provide regarding the confidentiality of the information communicated by companies?

Information that is provided and marked as confidential will be treated as such in accordance with Article 8 of Regulation (EU) No 2015/ 478 on common rules for imports and Article 5 of Regulation (EU) No 2015/755 on common rules for imports from certain third countries.

Will every industry sector be protected from sustained import increases? How quickly will they receive protection? How long can measures stay in place?

While the Commission is on high alert regarding risks of stemming from import increases and the potential damaging effects on the EU economy, any protective measures must be proportionate and based on evidence that increased imports are causing harm to EU producers. 

A safeguard measure can be taken where there is evidence of (1) an increase in imports which (2) causes (or threatens to cause) serious injury to EU producers of products directly competing with the imports. Both the increase in imports and the (threat of) serious injury must be substantiated by evidence, including reliable statistical data. It is important to note that 'EU producers' refers to Union producers representing a major proportion of total EU production of a given product. 

The timing of potential protective measures depends to a significant extent on the time that EU producers take to provide the Commission with the necessary evidence. Once the necessary evidence is available, an investigation can be initiated within a month – at the request of one or more Member States. 

Provisional measures may be imposed while the investigation is still ongoing, for a maximum of 200 days. Definitive measures would normally be imposed within nine months after initiation (can be extended to 11 months). 

Safeguard measures apply in principle to imports from all origins. They can take various forms, e.g. an additional duty that takes effect beyond a certain volume of imports. They must be supported by a qualified majority of Member States. 

Their duration under EU and WTO law is limited to a maximum of eight years. 

Anti-dumping or anti-subsidy measures are an option where EU producers have evidence that a product is being imported into the EU in increased quantities and sold at dumped prices (below the price on the domestic market of the exporting country or below the cost of production), or benefits from unfair subsidies.

While anti-dumping and anti-subsidy measures cannot be imposed as quickly as a safeguard, they can offer protection beyond the eight-year limit of a safeguard measure and can be imposed unless a qualified majority of Member States opposes them. 

Anti-dumping and anti-subsidy measures target one or several specific countries, as opposed to imports from all origins in the case of a safeguard.

Protective measures may help one part of the economy but be detrimental to others. How will the Commission handle this?

For any trade defence measure, the Commission is required to carry out a so-called Union interest test to ensure that the proposed measure would not be unduly detrimental to other segments of the EU economy.

In the event of a safeguard, Union interest concerns can also be addressed in the design of the measure (e.g. by establishing a tariff-rate quota based on historic levels of trade above which an additional duty takes effect, possibly taking into account historic shares of imports from specific trading partners).

How will the Commission engage with third countries on sustained import pressures?

Where appropriate, the Commission will engage in discussions with trading partners on this issue.